The slow economic recovery, unemployment, and reduction in disposable income have caused Americans to seek fewer healthcare services, which led to lower-than-expected growth in employers’ medical cost trends in 2010 and 2011. Based on interviews with health plans, PwC had projected a 9% increase in employer medical costs. However, low utilization led to adjusted estimates in the medical cost trend to 7.5% for 2010 and 8% for 2011 before benefit plan changes. The end of subsidized COBRA coverage in 2010 is offsetting otherwise rebounding utilization growth rates so far in 2011, but employers and health plans expect pent-up demand to put upward pressure on medical costs in 2012.
To help employers design their health benefit, PwC’s Health Research Institute provides annual estimates of how private medical costs will grow over the next year and what the leading drivers of the trend are expected to be.
In this year’s report, PwC identifies three factors that are likely to inflate the medical cost trend in 2012:
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